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Sunday, August 16, 2009

Secrets Of The Stochastic Oscillator

By Sam Nielson

The Stochastic oscillator will move between 0 and 100. Low readings mean an oversold market while high readings mean an overbought market. Oversold means the market over reacted on the sell off and is ready to bounce upward. Overbought means the market over reacted on the buying and is ready to turn down.

Buy when the Stochastic oscillator is low. Sell when the Stochastic oscillator is high. The idea is to take advantage of other traders when they are emotional: either fearful or greedy. Selling when the Stochastic is high is difficult because you'll want to hang on longer: greed. Buying when the Stochastic is low is difficult because you'll want to sit on the sidelines longer until the chart looks better.

New traders mess up by trying to over simplify trading. They pick just one indicator and use it because it's all they can conceptually understand. Don't do this. The Stochastic indicator needs to be used with other indicators. Why? Consider this. In a sudden buying frenzy, the Stochastic becomes overbought too quickly and will give a premature sell signal. In sudden panic selling, the Stochastic becomes oversold too quickly and will give a premature buy signal. Always use the Stochastic with other indicators.

Should a trader wait for the Stochastic indicator to turn up to recognize a buy signal? Should he wait for it to turn down to recognize a sell signal? Not really, because by the time the Stochastic indicator turns, a new move is usually under way. If you are looking for an opportunity to enter, as soon as the Stochastic indicator reaches an extreme you enter.

Go long when the Stochastics traces a bullish divergence, that is, when prices fall to a new low but the indicator makes a more shallow low. Go short when the Stochastics traces a bearish divergence, that is, when prices rise to a new high but the indicator ticks down from a lower peak than during the previous rally. In an ideal buying situation, the first Stochastics low is below and the second above the lower reference line. The best sell signals occur when the first top of the Stochastics is above and the second below the upper reference line.

Do not buy when the Stochastics is above its upper reference line and do not sell short when it is below its lower reference line. This is probably the most useful way to use the Stochastic. Moving averages are better than the Stochastics at identifying trends, MACD-Histogram is better at identifying reversals, channels are better at identifying profit targets, and the ADX is quicker at catching entry and exit points. The trouble with them is that they give action signals most of the time. The Stochastic identifies no trade zones. - 23222

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