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Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market

By Damian Papworth

There is a lot of mystique about foreign exchange trading. And probably rightly so too, it is after all one of the riskiest financial markets you can trade. In this article, we will take you through the reasons this market is so risky and hopefully to some extent, take the mystery out of the market.

Firstly, what is the Foreign Exchange market anyway? What are we trading? Its simple really, we are trading money from different countries. We buy money (which is called currency) in one country by selling currency from a different country. Its an extremely important market for the proper functioning of the global economy. You may not be aware of this, but as a consumer, you have almost definitely participated in this market either directly or indirectly, and probably do so every day.

If you have ever gone overseas on a holiday or for business, you would have needed to obtain currency in the country you visited. It doesn't matter if you used travellers cheques, credit card or cash, by functioning as a consumer overseas you would have needed to buy some local currency with the money you earned at home. It is this transaction that had you participating directly in the FX Market as a consumer.

Often, we are involved in the exchange market indirectly, as consumers who purchase goods from another country. Anything imported was either bought or sold with an exchange in currency. Next, a calculation by the importer will set the price for the foreign goods in the country where it will be sold, taking the entire scale of exchange into account. While you might have forgotten that it took this sort of arrangement for foreign goods to make their way to local stores, it happens every day of the year. The FX market has everyone involved, from tourists to exporters, from consumers to importers. The exchange of currencies makes it happen.

Maybe you have been mystified by the fluctuating currencies of different countries. Like most things in the business world the currency's supply versus its demand changes the rate. When a currency comes into high demand, with few sellers on the market, that makes it instantly more valuable. Buyers will pay a higher price to get their hands on it. Conversely, when a currency is unwanted and sellers flood the market looking to dump it, the price goes down. Those willing to take on such an unattractive commodity pay less to do so. The explanation is simple when you think in this manner.

One of the most difficult concepts to grasp is why certain currencies are so volatile. At times, even the experts are left scratching their heads as well, watching the waves of supply and demand with baffled looks on their faces. To succeed in the FX Markets, traders need to keep many different factors in mind and invest with experience, but answers aren't as simple as "yes" or "no" in this game. Formulas are just as scarce, so the more insight a trader has and the more research they've done, the better their chances.

Currency prices are a measure of a countries "economic value" as compared against another countries "economic value". If you think about the myriad of factors which impact people's perceptions of the economy of the country you live in, you can start to understand why predicting FX price movements is difficult.

Of course, one country's economy is only one part of the overall equation. The strength of the other country's economy is equally important. It doesn't do you a tremendous amount of good to be the master of one country when deciding to trade in the currency exchange markets, if you aren't familiar with the other currency you're trading.

Further, your currency trades against all the currencies in the world. So you need to know exactly how each individual economy is going, to compare it against your economy before making a judgement call about whether you think the exchange rate will go up or down.

Even if you have done your homework and are ready to make some smart moves, you must hope that everyone else cooperates. Currencies may change when someone's opinion changes, when some projected numbers have come in high or low, or even when other investors in another part of the world make a move. The fundamental traders, who weigh all the issues when making trades, are in the mix with technical traders, who operate on numbers alone. Each has its own place in the movement of prices.

There are even people who buy currencies months and years in advance to lock in a price, to help support business activities unrelated to FX trading. This also impacts price. So you can start to see what a complex equation this can become.

Then there are Foreign Exchange Trading Strategies which don't need to predict if a currency is going to go up or down. It doesn't matter which way the traded currencies move, they make small incremental profits in both directions.

I hope this helps take some of the mystery out of the FOREX market. - 23222

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